Date live in Priori Data: February 16th, 2018
Model(s) updated: Retention, DAUs, MAUs, ARPDAU
Platform(s) affected: iOS, GP
What did the update do?
This is the first significant update we’ve made to the usage estimates feature we released late last year.
- We're introducing Global usage estimates, for both iOS and Google Play.
- Through the addition of new partners to our PrioriDNA data pool, we’ve added data on over 150 millions devices to our iOS and Google Play training sets. (Note that this figure includes only devices that we determine to be valid based on geographic and behavioral criteria that we apply during the data cleaning process.)
- We did a complete overhaul of our training set pipeline and preprocessing algorithms. As a result we are now working with cleaner and more granular data.
- We’ve improved our methodology for estimating retention to better capture the slope of the curves as well as differences across platforms, geographies and verticals, most specifically those related to gaming.
- We are now calculating DAUs using a more precise formula.
- Bug fixes.
Impact on estimates
Together, these factors caused our DAU and MAU estimates for iOS apps, on average, to increase. For the very top of the market, however, we tended to revise our estimates downwards. On Google Play, we saw our average DAU estimates by country decrease in the majority of countries, with the exceptions being Asian markets such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan. For the very top of the market on Google Play, we revised both our DAU and MAU estimates downward by a substantial margin across the board.
In addition, our accuracy in terms of MAPPD (median absolute percentage point difference) for day 1, day 7 and day 30 retention remained constant or improved in all countries we cover across both platforms. The table below summarizes the top countries in terms of accuracy for day 7 retention.
Top 5 Countries in terms of App Level iOS Day 7 Retention Accuracy
Mean Absolute Percentage Point Difference, November + December 2017
Top 5 Countries in terms of Google Play Day 7 Retention Accuracy
Mean Absolute Percentage Point Difference, November 2017
As mentioned, we expect this update to have a particularly positive impact on our estimates for gaming sub-categories. This is illustrated by the fact that, out of all the verticals we cover, the top 5 that improved the most for each platform were all gaming categories.
Top 5 Most Improved Verticals in terms of iOS Day 7 Retention Accuracy
Change in Mean Absolute Percentage Point Difference, November + December 2017
Top 5 Most Improved Verticals in terms of GP Day 7 Retention Accuracy
Change in Mean Absolute Percentage Point Difference, November 2017