Hi, I’m Patrick, founder ofan app store intelligence provider. I interpret this question more as an app market research question and less as an ASO question.
[This question and our answer were originally posted on Quora.]
We like to think about sizing the market opportunity for a given app based on an analysis of what’s already in the market.
Let’s take an example: you are building a BMX game and want to estimate how many downloads/how much revenue your game could expect in a given month.
Withlike ours we can explore the question using some data and smart filters. Here’s how:
- Filter all apps in the store based on a full-text-search (keyword) for “BMX”
- Limit to Apple App Store
- Limit to iPhone
- Limit to apps which are free-to-download and published in the games category
This analysis returns 184 apps (out of ~3.5mm) that meet these criteria. In total, we estimate that these apps generated 618k downloads and $24k in store revenue globally during the month of June, 2016. On this basis you can probably set an upper bound for the monthly market opportunity for your games.
Now that you know the parameters of the total market, you can begin thinking about how much of that market you could actually expect to capture with your new game. Let’s say you are focused initially on the US market, and that you only consider games specifically in the Racing Games category to be relevant. If we apply these additional features we can see the number of apps reduces to 91, and the market size reduces to 59k downloads and $4.5k in revenue during the month.
Market research exercises are a triangulation of data points and intuition, and there are multiple ways to filter/re-cut the example above to help in that.