Estimation Model Update: 12/11/2017

November, 27 2017

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Michelle Tran
Written By
Michelle Tran

Date live in Priori Data: December 11th, 2017

Model(s) updated: In-app purchase revenue

Platform(s) affected: iOS

Release notes:

What did the update do?

For this release we re-fit our models on historical data provided from
additional publisher partners. Additionally we have changed our methodology to include a longer time window. This enables us to better capture historical trends in our model.

Together, these factors generally caused our estimates for the total market
size of each country as well as top performing apps to change. In most countries, the estimated market size increased; certain Asian markets were typically the exception. The table below summarizes these changes for the top 10 markets on iOS (iPhone only).

Percent change in estimated market size (top 10 markets for iOS, iPhone, Q1-Q3 2017): 

Screen Shot 2017-11-27 at 14.17.49.png

Read more >> deep dive into our methodology here.

As a result of the enriched data set, accuracy in terms of MAPE (median absolute percentage error) between Q1 and Q3 2017 improved in almost all countries. The table below summarizes the countries that saw the largest improvement in MAPE.

% Improvement in Median Absolute Percentage Error

(top 5 markets for iOS, Q1-Q3 2017):

Screen Shot 2017-12-13 at 10.47.04.png

Overall, better models means better accuracy. It's important to note that the changes in our estimates might affect some apps, publishers, and categories more dramatically than others. If you have questions about how a specific subset of our platform has been impacted, please contact us (

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