Estimation model update, 1/30/2017

January, 31 2017

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Michelle Tran
Written By
Michelle Tran

Date live in Priori Data: January 30th, 2017

Model(s) updated: Downloads

Platform(s) affected: iOS, Google Play


Release notes:

  • This is a significant update that impacts both our Google Play, and to a lesser extent, iOS, download estimates.
  • We refit the models for both platforms using our most up-to-date partner data set, which should result in increased accuracy across the board.
  • Based on new market information, we have revised our download estimates for outlier apps on both platforms, most notably Pokémon Go. Our estimates for this app are now much more conservative.
  • We adjusted our estimates for the Google Play House and Home and Parenting categories in response to new market information. Our estimates for these categories are now on average more conservative.
  • We fixed a bug in our imputation logic for the Google Play Finance category in the Philippines.
  • In addition, we’ve added an important new feature to our Google Play download model that allows us to more accurately capture seasonality.
  • As a result of the aforementioned updates, estimated market sizes of the top 10 largest Google Play countries in terms of 2016 downloads shrank by 13% on average.
  • We have also seen notable improvements in both our daily and time period aggregated Google Play download estimates. The top 5 countries in terms of improvement in year 2016 app download estimate accuracy are shown in the table below.

Median Absolute % Error (MAPE) in app download estimates

Google Play, year 2016

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