Estimation Model Update: 07/07/2017

July, 7 2017

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Ryan Field
Written By
Ryan Field

Date live in Priori Data: July 3rd-7th, 2017

Model(s) updated: In-app purchase revenue, downloads

Platform(s) affected: iOS (revenue), Google Play (downloads)

Release notes:

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When did the update take place?

The update was applied to some parts of our platform on Monday, July 3rd. These parts included the Market Intelligence and Publisher Intelligence views, as well as the Country Split and Quick Stat sections in the App Intelligence view. It takes longer to update the Historical Trends sections because of the larger number of data points, and we project having this section updated on July 7th.

What did the update do?

For the IAP revenue model, this release is analogous to the model update on June 19th, but applied to the iOS platform. As in that update, we refit our models on historical data from many large new publisher partners. We also improved our methodology by making better use of time-series trends to reflect the steady growth of the app market, especially over the last year and a half.

Together, these factors generally caused our revenue estimates for the total market size of each country to change. In most countries outside the top 10, the estimated market size increased. Within the top 10, our estimated market size for South Korea more than doubled, because we are now better able to capture the growth of apps in the top 100 places in the iTunes top grossing charts. The table below summarizes these changes for the top 10 markets on iOS.

Percent change in estimated revenue market size - 100% means no change

(top 10 revenue markets on iOS, 2016 & Q1 2017):


The table below summarizes the MAPE for the top ten markets on iOS.

Median Absolute Percentage Error for Revenue

(top 10 revenue markets on iOS, 2016):


It’s important to note that the changes in our estimates might affect some apps, publishers, and categories more dramatically than others. If you have questions about how a specific subset of our platform has been impacted, please contact us.

Google Play, Downloads

The Google Play download model has been refit, fixing several irrational spikes. Therefore, the market sizes have slightly decreased, while the MAPE did not change significantly. Also, the estimates have been adjusted to fit into the global ranges given by the Google Play Store.

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