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DAU Model Update 4.5

August, 23 2019

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Date Live in Priori Data: August 26th 2019 (Platform and API users)

Model(s) Updated: DAU

Platform(s) Affected: iOS

 

At Priori Data we are striving to make ongoing and impactful improvements to our estimates and the methodology that drives them. Following the larger usage model update in May this year, we felt there were a few things we could further improve on in this area. So on Monday we release an update that, through a more specialised methodology, will deliver a further increase in accuracy to our iOS DAU estimates.

 

What changes did we make?

Input data:

  • We have updated the data in our training set to include more recent data, removed low-quality data and excluded data from smaller and less consistent apps that could affect the overall performance of the model. 
  • We have included data points for top performing apps to ensure we are capturing the top end of the market more accurately.

Model features and formula: 

  • We have increased accuracy in the model through more sophisticated feature engineering.
  • We have introduced a machine learning model which captures feature relationships more accurately.
  • We have included more specific modelling for top apps and categories. 

Bug Fixes

  • Various bug fixes, improvements and performance enhancements. 

 

What is the impact on the estimates?

As DAU figures represent individual users, we have used the relative absolute error (RAE) for the month of June 2019 to determine the DAU error rate. This normalises the difference between apps with very high and very low user estimates.

Overall we have seen a slight increase in the DAU figures along with an increase in accuracy of 11% when compared with the previous model version. The DAU trendline is also more stable and follows what we see in our training data more accurately. 

 

Top 5 Verticals (Categories) in terms of iOS DAU Accuracy

 

Vertical

Relative Absolute Error

Games/Trivia

7.99%

Business

12.66%

Utilities

17.09%

Navigation

17.28%

Games/Strategy

18.41%

 

Most Improved 5 Verticals (Categories) in terms of iOS DAU Accuracy

Vertical

Relative Absolute Error

Education

52.18%

Games/Action

30.45%

Utilities

17.09%

Navigation

17.28%

Entertainment

26.99%

 

Top 5 Countries in terms of iOS DAU Accuracy

Country

Relative Absolute Error

Taiwan

10.88%

Turkey

15.85%

Russia

20.23%

Germany

21.11%

Philippines

21.55%

 

iOS DAU Accuracy for Top 5 Relevant Markets

Country

Relative Absolute Error

United States

27.75%

United Kingdom

26.50%

Germany

21.11%

France

25.43%

Russia

20.23%

 

On the whole, the improvements we make to our models result in higher accuracy. It is important to be aware that the changes that we make may affect some apps, publishers and categories more than others. If you have any questions about how anything in particular has been impacted by this update, please reach out to us at info@prioridata.com.

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