Estimation model update 19/06/2017

[fa icon="calendar"] Jun 19, 2017 12:24:03 PM / by Michelle Tran

Date live in Priori Data: 19/06/2017

Model(s) updated: In-app purchase revenue

Platform(s) affected: Google Play

Release notes:

For this release we re-fit our models on historical data from many large new publisher partners. We also improved our methodology by making better use of time-series trends to reflect the steady growth of the app market, especially over the last year and a half. Together, these factors generally caused our estimates for the total market size of each country to change. In most countries, the estimated market size increased; Asian markets were typically the exception. The table below summarizes these changes for the top 10 markets on Google Play.

Percent change in estimated market size (top 10 markets on Google Play, 2016 & Q1 2017): 

market_size.png

This release does not make a significant change to our accuracy in terms of MAPE. In almost all markets, the MAPE did not change by more than 10%. The table below summarizes the MAPE for the top ten markets on Google Play. 

Median Absolute Percentage Error (top 10 markets on Google Play, 2016):

mape.png

These changes apply generally to all app categories.

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Topics: Release Notes

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